2009 Rose Bowl Preview – PSU vs. USC

THE SET-UP

Fourteen years ago, Penn State entered the Rose Bowl with a chance at a national championship. Despite routing Oregon that day, the Lions would still end up short of Nebraska and the title. This time around against USC, there is no such title on the line, just pride. For the past number of years, the Big Ten has taken a beating in the national perspective. For the last two years, Ohio State has gotten beat in the National Championship game, both losses by convincing margins. The last Big Ten team to win a BCS game was the 2005 Lions, who beat Florida State in the 2006 Orange Bowl. Since the first BCS games in 1999, the Big Ten has sent 17 teams to the 47 games, the most by any conference. Once again this year, as was the case last year, the Big Ten sends two teams to BCS games; Ohio State will face Texas in the Fiesta Bowl next Monday night. The game will mark Penn State’s second BCS appearance after the previously mentioned Orange Bowl, and USC’s seventh BCS bowl game appearance. In their 6 games, they are 5-1. They have also played in five of the last six Rose Bowls (winning all but one, against Texas in 2006); the game they missed was the 2005 edition. They were busy winning the Orange Bowl and the National Championship that year.

Five planes w/PSU fans from Harrisburg on Monday morning

Oh, and don’t forget the Penn State fans that made the trip. Maybe I’ll be able to barter pictures when I see someone from the plane closest to Los Angeles on Friday.

SCOUTING THE TROJANS

On Thursday, Penn State squares off with a Southern California team that like them, has only one blemish on the season. In late September, the Trojans dropped a 27-21 game to Oregon State, a team that Penn State beat handily just three weeks before. Since then, USC has won out. In those nine games, they have allowed more than 10 points just once. On the season, USC has allowed just over 7 points per game, and many people have labeled this the best defense in the history of college football.

The general consensus is that USC has four first-round draft picks starting on the defensive side of the ball in linebackers Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga, safety Taylor Mays and defensive tackle Fili Moala. As you will see in the following paragraphs, Penn State matches up suprisingly well against the Trojan defense, something with I believe is being overlooked. So do these guys.

Offensively, the men of Troy are led by quarterback Mark Sanchez who went 213-331 on the season with just under 2,800 passing yards, and 30 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. For what it’s worth, three of Sanchez’s 10 picks were thrown in the last two games. In the backfield, USC has three backs who have gone over 600 yards on the season. Superstar-in waiting Joe McKnight (84 car, 646 yds., 2 TD), LA native Stafon Johnson (123-642-9) and sophomore C.J. Gable (101-604-8) all ran well during the season. On the edges, Damian Williams (48 rec., 707 yds., 8 TD) and Patrick Turner (45-667-10) pace the team in catches. Of those six, only Turner will be playing his last game as a senior.

PENN STATE OFFENSE vs. USC DEFENSE

• Rushing Yardage: PSU, 211.6 ypg (13th); USC, 83.5 ypg (5th)
• Passing Yardage: PSU, 240.6 ypg (48th); USC, 122.8 ypg (1st)
• Total Yardage: PSU, 452.2 ypg (14th); USC, 206.1 ypg (1st)
• Points: PSU, 40.2 ppg (11th); USC, 7.8 ppg (1st)
• Turnover Margin: PSU, + .75 (19th); USC, + .42 (34th)

Sure, the firsts look daunting when it comes to rankings, and while that may be the deterrent for many people to pick against Penn State, it could work the opposite. We’ve been hearing for weeks about how USC could be disinterested in playing in this game for the fifth time in six years, but I’m not buying into that. What I will buy into is the fact that everyone who will line up on the opposite side of the USC defense will have a chip on their shoulder. Last year, USC manhandled Illinois in every aspect of the game; Penn State 2008 is not Illinois 2007. This will be a challenge for this offense, and something that could work well for the Penn State offense is short passing. Screen passes against the speed of USC could result in big plays, especially if a certain running back’s field vision (we’re not naming names Stephfon Green) has gotten better in the past month. Don’t think that Penn State hasn’t watched the Oregon State film a few times by now, runs up the middle and short passes will be the key against the speed.

PENN STATE DEFENSE vs. USC OFFENSE

• Rushing Yardage: PSU, 95.9 ypg (9th); USC, 206.0 ypg (17th)
• Passing Yardage: PSU, 168.0 ypg (12th); USC, 247.1 ypg (32nd)
• Total Yardage: PSU, 263.9 ypg (5th); USC, 453.1 ypg (13th)
• Points: PSU, 12.4 ppg (3rd); USC, 37.5 ppg (14th)

It will be intresting to see how the Trojans try to beat the defense. I believe if it will be anywhere it will be on the edges with the wide recievers. An end around could catch us off guard a bit, especially with McKnight’s speed. He scored on an end around against UCLA in the regular-season finale. Penn State corner Lydell Sargeant has four interceptions this year, and is playing a few miles from his hometown; expect him to be excited and up for this game which should help. We should know 8-10 minutes in which defense is going to win this game, it should be a slugfest, it should be a beautiful football game.

OTHER MATCHUPS

• Penn State’s kickoff returns (5th) vs. Southern California’s kickoff return defense (46th)
• Penn State’s net punting (24th) vs. Southern California’s net punting (th)
• Penn State’s third down conversion percentage (6th) and third down conversion percentage defense (9th) vs. Souther California’s third down conversion percentage (27th) and third down conversion percentage defense (2nd)
• Southern California’s tackles for loss (4th) vs. Penn State’s tackles for loss allowed (9th)
• Southern California’s kickoff returns (1st) vs. Penn State’s kickoff return defense (68th)

And for the first time all year, the Lions will play a statistical equal (better actually) than themselves. They’ve had a month to prepare for all of this, and it should, as previously stated, be a terrific college football game. Get the TIVO’s ready.

THE PREDICTION

So here we have it, Penn State is really in the Rose Bowl. Quite a contrast from or pre-season prediction. Joe Paterno has more bowl wins than any other college coach in history. Every year he gets his team ready to play to their highest capability against their toughest opponent. Give Joe a month and he’ll give you a shot. A win over a program like USC would make this the greatest exclamation point for a senior class that deserves nothing less. Butler, Williams, Norwood, Kelly, Scirrotto, Cadogan, Gaines, Shipley, Sargeant, Ohrnberger, etc. re-shaped the program into a winner, winning 40 games while wearing the blue and white. I am excited for a game and nervous for the second time all season in making a pick, but we can’t go against them now, Penn State wins in a slugfest 20-16.

Have a safe and happy new year, enjoy the football (and hockey) tomorrow. Fight On State.